Since Election Day, Election Research has received several requests for a final report comparing the projected results compiled from October 24 – 25, 2004, with the actual Election 2004 results. This report compares the Election Research results with actual Election Day results, as well as provide a brief summary and analysis.
On October 25, 2004, Election Research completed the “sixteenth and final survey” in a series of surveys conducted as part of an Election 2004 program. During a 24-hour period from October 24, 2004 through October 25, 2004, Election Research surveyed 249,970-homes in the 18-states targeted by both the George W. Bush and John F. Kerry 2004 Presidential campaigns. This universe translated into 13,887-homes per state.
Methodology of the October 24 – 25, 2004, Election Research Survey:
- 13,887-homes per state. Calls and responses were weighted by population per 9-digit zip codes in each state
- 18 states were targeted for this effort: Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia
- This survey universe was extracted from the 120,000,000 record database that Election Research maintains of homes and businesses in America. The focus of our efforts was the 35,451,054 - homes Election Research warehouses in our database in the 18 targeted states
- As on all surveys, three passes were made for all non-live responses Election Research detected. This included Ring-No-Answers (RNA), Busy and Answering Device call results
News Headlines Between the Election Research Survey Period, ending October 25, 2004, and Election Day, November 2, 2004:
- Presidential Candidates George W. Bush and John F. Kerry Make Final Pushes and Appeals
- Bin Laden Releases Video Tape Proving He is Alive, Well and Active
- Chief Justice Rehnquist has Cancer Surgery –Targets Thyroid - Triggers Supreme Court Discussion in Elections Nationwide
- Boston Red Sox win World Series in 4 Games
- Exit Polling On Election Day Predicts Kerry Landslide at 2:00 p.m. EST on Election Afternoon
- 1,128 US Troops / Citizens Reported Killed in Iraq War to date. 65-US Soldiers Killed In Iraq in October 2004 and 2 before Election Day in November 2004
The Results and Numbers
Below is a final state-by-state summary showing “George W. Bush,” “John F. Kerry” and “Other Preference” support. It also shows the changes in support for each candidate by state, between Election Research’s October 25, 2004 survey and Election Results as reported through November 7, 2004.
The Election Research survey averaged 3,041 respondents in each targeted state, weighted by population per 9-digit zip code. The percentage support and the number of respondents per state, as well as the Projected Electoral College Count and the Actual Electoral College Count based on actual votes cast and the differences are listed in the following graphic:
As is shown in the chart above, in the Election Research October 25, 2004 survey, George W. Bush was tracking higher in 15 of 18 states (Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin and West Virginia) while John F. Kerry was tracking higher in 3 of 18 (New Hampshire, Maine, and Washington).
The actual Election Day results showed that George W. Bush won 10 of 18 states (Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia) while John F. Kerry won 8 of 18 (Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Washington)
Important conclusions to note include:
- 1% - This is the average difference between the Election Research projected vote for George W. Bush and the actual vote obtained in each of the 18-targeted states
- George W. Bush won all targeted states that Election Research showed him with 51% or more of the vote on October 25, 2004 in the 18-targeted state survey
- John F. Kerry won all targeted states that Election Research showed him winning on October 25, 2004 in the 18-targeted state survey
- 14% - This is the percentage of the Election Research projected undecided vote that evidently chose to vote for George W. Bush in the 18-targeted states
- 86% - This is the percentage of the Election Research projected undecided vote that evidently chose to vote for John F. Kerry in the 18-targeted states
- These figures seem to bear out the old political axiom that “90% of the undecided vote goes to the Challenger because the electorate already knows what the incumbent stands for”
- 172 – This is the Electoral College vote for George W. Bush that was cited based on the results from the October 25, 2004, 18-targeted state survey
- 107 – This is the Electoral College vote for George W. Bush awarded by actual election results reported in the 18-targeted states
- 19 – This is the Electoral College vote for John F. Kerry based on the results from the October 25, 2004, 18-targeted state survey
- 84 – This is the Electoral College vote for John F. Kerry awarded by actual election results reported in the 18-targeted states
About FreeEats.com - FreeEats.com is a privately-held database company headquartered in Virginia which uses a patent-pending survey technology. Its interactive voice response telephone system allows FreeEats to ask multiple questions to which the responder gives voice answers rather than the alternate technology which uses telephone push buttons to indicate the responses. FreeEats is scrupulous in its efforts to comply with all applicable laws and regulations.
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